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The Future of the NBA Looks Bright

Zach Crowe
Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo controls the ball during the NBA basketball match between Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets at The AccorHotels Arena in Paris on January 24, 2020. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP) (Photo by FRANCK FIFE/AFP via Getty Images)

Today marks the tenth day since Adam Silver announced the temporary suspension of the NBA season. We all know that basketball isn’t coming back soon, and for good reason, but the loss of such a fun year left fans heartbroken. In times where optimism is declining, having some hope and excitement can drastically help boost spirits. And when we’re talking about the future of the NBA, it’s hard not to tingle with excitement.

The Next Wave of Superstars Are Coming

What Does “Next Wave” Mean?

When we talk about “the next wave” in sports, we refer to the most talented young players who are expected to be the faces of that league for the next five-to-ten years. Because of this, we only looked at players age 25-and-younger. Typically, NBA players enter their prime at age 27, and begin to decline around age 31. Therefore, players who are currently 25 or younger can be expected to grow in talent in the coming years.

What Makes This Group of Players so Special?

The NBA has never seen a class of young players like this before, both in terms of size and talent. This season, there have been 277 players aged 25-or-younger to check in at least once. Of course, the majority of those players won’t go on to have remarkable careers. So, we start by only looking at players from that group who are already making an impact on the court. Of the 277 youngsters, 34 of them are averaging at least 15 points per game.

To compare this number to past waves of up-and-coming players, we looked at player data from the 2014-15 season (five years ago), the 2009-10 season (ten years ago), and so on. We went as far back in history as the 1984-85 season. That gave us seven seasons, each separated by five years, to compare to the players in 2019-20. None of the seven seasons had more than 30 players aged 25-or-younger scoring 15 points per game, making 2019-20’s group of players the largest in 40 years.

What makes this group so special isn’t just its size, however. This wave also has more talent than any other in league history. Scoring 15 points per game makes you a decent scorer, but certainly not a great one. It’s reasonable to say that scoring at least 20 points a game would make you a fairly great scorer. If a player puts up 23+ points per game, he’s typically thought of as an elite scorer.

Take a look at how many players in the current wave are hitting these marks and how it matches up against past waves:

The gap between the current core of young players and those of past seasons is jaw-dropping. More than half  (12/23) of the players scoring 23+ points per game this season are 25 or younger. As fans, it makes the game more exciting than it’s ever been. Who doesn’t want to see more and more players reaching elite talent levels?

Some of these players, like reigning-MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, are 25-years-old and have had time to develop in the league. But, this year, we’ve seen an unprecedented number of players 21-or-younger put up some of the best numbers in the league. Trae Young and Luka Doncic are in only their second season, and are both top-five in points per game and assists per game this year. We’re sure you’ve heard of that 19-year old rookie in New Orleans, Zion Williamson, who’s scoring 23.6 points per game on 59% shooting. Young phenoms like these can make you forget players such as Nikola Jokic or Zach LaVine are still only 25-years-old.

So, while the NBA may not be returning in the near future, there’s a lot to be optimistic about in the coming years. It makes you wonder if this will transform the league into its most competitive state ever. What do you think the future of the NBA looks like?

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