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Anfernee Simons Breakout Could Define the Blazers’ Future

Brian Paul

DENVER, CO - MAY 7: Torrey Craig (3) of the Denver Nuggets defends a pass by Meyers Leonard (11) of the Portland Trail Blazers to Anfernee Simons (24) during the fourth quarter of the Nuggets' 124-98 win on Tuesday, May 7, 2019. The Denver Nuggets versus the Portland Trail Blazers in game five of the teams' second round NBA playoff series at the Pepsi Center in Denver. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

The Anfernee Simons breakout season has arrived. For the bulk of his four-year NBA career, Anfernee Simons took a backseat while Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum navigated the Portland Trail Blazers through the trenches of the Western Conference. It was a rare speed bump for Simons. His rise to becoming the 24th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft was accelerated by his reclassification and subsequent high school breakout. Today, Simons has established himself as one of the NBA’s most promising young talents; showcasing the potential to be the player that defines the future of Portland.

Anfernee Simons Breakout Could Define the Blazers’ Future

Anfernee Simons’ Opportunity

Injuries to Lillard and McCollum provided Simons with the opportunity to be in the starting lineup and function as the team’s primary ball-handler. Since becoming the Blazers’ starting point guard full-time in 2022, Simons has averaged 23.4 points and 5.8 assists per game. This includes strong efficiency marks such as a 45.6 field goal percentage, 42.3 percent on three-pointers with 10.3 attempts per game, and 86.6 percent at the free-throw line.

In fact, what made Simons’ breakout even more impressive is that his elite efficiency has coincided with a major jump in usage rate. (17.7 percent -> 28.3 percent) His effective field goal percentage of 58.7 percent during this stretch ranks in the 92nd percentile of combo guards, per Cleaning The Glass.

Anfernee Simons Breakout as a Scorer

Simons Can Light It Up from Outside…

The first thing that jumps out when watching Simons on the offensive end is his premier shooting ability. He has connected on over 40 percent of his three-pointers in each of the past 2 seasons, including a scorching 51 (!!!) percent on catch and shoot attempts in 2020-21.

Dangerous pulling up going to his left or right; Simons’ combination of a quick trigger and deep range make him a terrific threat on the perimeter. CraftedNBA’s Shooting Quality metric ranks Simons as the 5th most accurate shooter in the NBA, with a rating of 89.4 out of 100.

55 percent of Simons’ field goal attempts come from three, and his increased opportunities have showcased his self-creation ability. 60 percent of his shots have been unassisted in 2022, compared to 46 percent in 2020-21 and 50 percent in 2019-20.

And Get Into the Paint With Ease

Simons’ tremendous athleticism also stands out. His quick first step, excellent start-stop ability, with a blend of craftiness and shiftiness as a ball-handler accentuates Simons’ shooting and shot-creating abilities seamlessly; opening up drives where Simons can finish with a burgeoning floater game. He is shooting 48 percent from floater range; a career-high mark that ranks in the 72nd percentile among combo guards.

Simons has not looked overmatched since taking command of Portland’s offense after Lillard’s injury; an impressive feat for a 22-year old in his fourth season. Simons’ scoring was not the only ability to flourish despite increased defensive attention; he has showcased high-level playmaking potential as well.

Simons’ Playmaking On Display

With more opportunity, Simons showcased playmaking that bodes well for his future as a lead guard in the future. Simons’ assist percentage of 28.1 since January 1st ranks in the 82nd percentile of combo guards league wide; a drastic improvement from his assist rates of 9.1 and 10.8 in 2019-20 and 2020-21, respectively.

Simons has demonstrated the capability to make good reads; delivering accurate passes to open teammates and through tight windows; both in the half-court and in the open floor.

Here’s an exhibit on Simons delivering through tight windows; featuring pocket passes to big man Jusuf Nurkic; who developed great chemistry with Simons during their time on the floor together this season:

Simons has also shown the ability to make cross-court reads. He can deliver accurate skip passes to open shooters on the perimeter as the defense helps.

Simons’ array of passing skills reflects well in the numbers as well: 11th in potential assists in 2022, while creating approximately 7 open shots for teammates per 100 possessions, ranking in the 88th percentile of all NBA players.

What Does Anfernee Simons’ Breakout Mean for the Blazers in the Future?

The most encouraging part of Simons’ success is that he is only 22 years old. He still has areas to grow in, as with any young player; he could stand to improve defensively, getting to the free-throw line more, and leveraging his athleticism more often to finish over bigger, taller defenders in the paint.

But what Portland has in Simons right now is still really good; a talented combo guard who can create for himself and others, be comfortable playing with or without the ball and can elevate an offense with his presence on the floor. (The Blazers’ offense was 5.2 points better per 100 possessions with Simons on the floor this season, 86th percentile of all NBA players)

As the Trail Blazers head into a monumental offseason where speculation surrounds the pieces that will orbit franchise superstar Damian Lillard, his backcourt partner should be locked in for next season. Simons is a restricted free agent who is expected to re-sign in Portland. Despite a lost season, Anfernee Simons’ breakout may have led the Portland Trail Blazers to find their next franchise superstar.

Main Photo: Embed from Getty Images

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