While August’s NBA boredom tirelessly drew on, bookmakers quietly set over/unders for regular-season wins. Overall, they did a good job of placing reasonable expectations on teams. There were a few bets that stood out though.
Best NBA Bets: Eastern Conference Season Wins Over/Unders
Atlanta Hawks Over 34.5 Wins +110
A mark of 34.5 wins seems fair for the exciting, but young Atlanta Hawks. They’re brimming with potential but teams this young often lack the experience to close out games with any regularity. That said, given the weaker Eastern Conference, they’re capable of eclipsing the 34.5 wins mark by just a smidge. A win total around 35-37 seems totally within reach.
Trae Young really started figuring out his game at the end of the year, which turned into him leading the squad over convincing down-to-the-wire victories over teams like the Philadelphia 76ers (twice), Utah Jazz, and Milwaukee Bucks. They were able to drum up 29 wins last year despite Young not playing well until the latter half of the year. Apart from a more experienced Young, they’re coming into the season with third-year John Collins, second-year Kevin Huerter, and a stout defensive presence in De’Andre Hunter. Cam Reddish will need more time to develop into a consistent impact player, but his presence may help swing games in the second or third quarter against weaker East competition.
New York Knicks Under 26.5 Wins +105
The New York Knicks are an “under” mainstay in NBA over/unders. Until James Dolan steps down as owner, the world can safely make a case for that approach. For the sake of context, they managed to win 17 games last year when the over/under was set at a hilarious-in-hindsight 29.5.
Even though they picked up Julius Randle, Marcus Morris, and RJ Barrett, it doesn’t seem like that’s good enough to add nine more wins. The franchise’s efforts to tank for Zion Williamson ended up biting them in the end when lottery time rolled around. Still, they won’t be afraid to press on and tank when the team is in too deep of a hole come February or March, thus keeping their win total low to sell that timeless product to their ailing fans: hope.
Chicago Bulls Under 32.5 Wins +100
A goal of 33 wins seems like too generous of a mark to give a Chicago Bulls team that won 22 games last year. They addressed some team needs by drafting Coby White and Daniel Gafford, but the franchise didn’t make waves in free agency. Their main pickups were Thaddeus Young, Tomas Satoransky, and Luke Kornet.
If young guys like Lauri Markkanen, Zach LaVine, and Wendell Carter Jr. stay healthy, then there’s a good chance they land in the 35-40 win range. However, that might be expecting a little too much. Markkannen missed 30 games last year while Lavine missed 20 and Carter Jr. only played 44 of 82. Health will be a major concern for their young core all season long, which may be enough to keep the Bulls from seriously pursuing a record worthy of the 8-seed.
Charlotte Hornets Under 23.5 Wins -120
The Charlotte Hornets have a great chance to be the worst team in the NBA this year. Terry Rozier was their big free-agent signing, and he comes in pretty much being the best player in the wake of Kemba Walker‘s exit. Outside of Rozier, their next-best guys are the likes of Nicolas Batum, Miles Bridges, Dwayne Bacon, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Rozier will be looked upon to replace not only Kemba Walker’s scoring, but his facilitation too. Walker didn’t light the world on fire with his playmaking (5.9 assists last year), but Rozier isn’t a natural facilitator (2.9 assists last year). He played a pivotal role on the 2017-18 Celtics team that pushed LeBron James to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, which Celtics fans will be forever grateful for. How is he going to fare as the team’s go-to guy though? He played well as a starter in spurts, but the jury is still out on his ability to thrive given an increased role for a full regular season in the NBA. The reward is smaller at -120, but betting on this Hornets roster to underperform seems like one of the most sensible NBA over/unders.
Brooklyn Nets Over 44.5 Wins +100
There are a lot of variables going on with this Brooklyn Nets team. Will Kyrie Irving‘s exhausting presence from Boston carry over into this Nets locker room? Or will it be different because he’s choosing to be there rather than arriving via trade?
Regardless, Kyrie Irving is an absolute upgrade over D’Angelo Russell in terms of ability. The Brooklyn Nets managed to win 42 games last year with the blossoming Russell as their point guard. Who is to say they can’t win three more games as one of the more solid teams in a weaker East? Caris LeVert should get some run next season with Durant out, which is the perfect situation for him to develop into that third option. The presence of a new superstar plus mainstays like LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen, and Joe Harris should be enough to win three more games than last year.
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