Recently we covered the best NBA bets in terms of over/under win totals for the Eastern Conference. Now we look at the best bets based on how bookmakers expect the NBA regular season to unfold out West.
Best NBA Bets: Western Conference Season Wins Over/Unders
Denver Nuggets Over 51.5 games -135
Bettors have to risk more to win less with these odds, but it seems quite likely to cash out. When one considers that the Nuggets won 54 games last year, why would they take a step backward? They aren’t a team that’s fatigued with the regular season like the Golden State Warriors of late. They’re a young, hungry team that wants respect.
Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Gary Harris all have another year of experience and continuity under their belt. Yes, Paul Millsap is a little long in the tooth at 34 years old, but they have enough depth to supplant any extra minutes he may need to rest. Not to mention, their Jerami Grant pickup addressed a positional need – in the regular season at least. The team garnered substantial playoff experience in two seven-game series. The lessons learned from their second-round loss to the Portland Trail Blazers should carry over into their regular-season battles. They were likely given a lower win total because the Western Conference is deeper overall, but one mustn’t count out their natural home-court advantage at the Pepsi Center.
New Orleans Pelicans Under 38.5 games +105
You can thank Zion Williamson for this generous outlook on the New Orleans Pelicans’ upcoming season. The franchise that boasts Williamson, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and Jrue Holiday is going to be one of the most entertaining teams of the year. However, they don’t look like a winning basketball club yet. If they do manage to win 39 games or more, it’ll be because Jrue Holiday or Brandon Ingram went up a level. Lonzo Ball has yet to show us if he can stay healthy for a full season. And if he does manage to play, he has yet to show that he can be consistent – especially offensively
Zion Williamson has the most potential we’ve seen since LeBron James, but don’t expect him to put the team on his back his very first year. He still has to work on his shot form and percentages (33.8 percent from three, 64 percent from the line) and needs to get acquainted with NBA size and speed. The Pelicans as a whole don’t have good spacing either. Watching Williamson run the lanes with Ball, Hart, Ingram, and Holiday will be infinitely entertaining. You need spacing to win games in the modern era though.
Phoenix Suns Under 29.5 games -110
Last year, the Phoenix Suns managed to win only 19 games. It’s ok for a young team to struggle, especially when tanking is still an effective strategy. They made some head-scratching moves on draft night, including taking Cam Johnson surprisingly early and dealing one of their best players last year, TJ Warren.
They come into the 2019-20 season with new veterans Ricky Rubio, Dario Saric, and Frank Kaminsky. Rubio provides good defense and playmaking at point guard, but their acquisitions as a whole don’t seem enough to move the needle. If this team wins more than 30 games, it’ll be because Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton figured something out. If they do both take a leap, the Suns still might not have the right pieces to compete in the Western Conference.
Sacramento Kings Over 37.5 games -120
The same kind of thinking attributed to the Denver Nuggets applies to the Sacramento Kings. They managed to win 39 games last year, but oddsmakers decided to knock them down a peg despite them adding more veterans around their young pieces. We aren’t sure if De’Aaron Fox has the superstar potential that Nikola Jokic does just yet, but he should take even another sizable leap in his third NBA season. In hindsight, that leap he took last year in only his second season seemed earlier than usual. Not many people outside of Sacramento would’ve expected him to look as good as he did.
Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley III are also due for improvement in their respective fourth and second years. Their youth is supported by the playoff-tested presences of Harrison Barnes, Cory Joseph, and Trevor Ariza. Yes, the talent pool rose in the West, but Fox, Bagley, and Hield’s continued development should be enough to hit the same mark they did last season at minimum. Assuming health holds up, betting the over on the Sacramento Kings should be one of the best NBA bets.
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